This article is interesting. It highlights that the Chinese party believes that the speed of the recovery is slowing. I think that we can expect no major shift in policy over the next two weeks or so as the Chinese government’s 60th anniversary is celebrated. After that is over in October we may see some policy [...]
Despite the bullishness in equities Chinese Steel prices have been falling.
http://www.businessinsider.com/way-better-than-the-bdi-watch-chinese-iron-ore-demand-falling-2009-9
Good commentary regarding the trade issue.
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/us-china-spat-hits-stocks-but-trade-war-unlikely-2009-09-15
It seems that there was an agreement at the G20 not to use restrictive trade measures during the crisis and the US is now reaching beyond that agreement.
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/wto-chief-concerned-about-china-tire-tariffs-2009-09-16
This article ties well with the one I posted with respect to US steel tariffs. It seems that that Chinese stimulus has resulted in massive steel production which is being dumped around the world. They have invested in excess capacity and goods for export. This excess steel production is crowding out local producers who are [...]
The trade war may be esclating.
Bloomberg Reports:
By Mark Drajem
Sept. 16 (Bloomberg) — U.S. Steel Corp. asked the U.S. Commerce Department to impose dumping and anti-subsidy duties of as much as 90 percent on some steel pipe imports from China, five days after the Obama administration set tariffs on Chinese tires.
The petition was filed today with [...]
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aRpmRxXnPrbU
In this short clip Roach talks about Chinese premier Wen Jiabau, who at the World Economic Forum warned about the imbalance imbeded in the Chinese economy.
http://www.cnbc.com/id/15840232?video=1252509412&play=1
China is reacting very quickly to the Obama administration’s decision to raise tariffs on Chinese tire imports. Hopefully, this is the end of the exchange of punitive measures. If it is not, this will obviously be very bad for the world economy.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=a7nGNZzouDOM
Also, see this NYT article.
http://www.nytimes.com/2009/09/14/business/global/14trade.html?_r=1&ref=business
To summarize the Chinese official data released on Friday Sept. 11:
The Good
Manufacturing output: up by 12.3% year on year, better than last month’s 10.8% and higher than consensus.
Steel output: up 29%
Auto production: up 90%.
Urban fixed-asset investment: up 33.0% for the first eight months of the year, which slightly exceeded already-high estimates of 32.5%.
Retail sales: up [...]