Real China Economy

George Baxter Consumption, Stimulis, trade, video interview Consumption, exports, stephen roach, trade

I think these videos are both very good and from very credible sources.  The first is Michael Pettis who is based in Peking university and is one of the most watched Chinese analysts.  Pettis shares my view with respect to China and its imbalances.
http://www.ft.com/cms/893ac9c8-757e-11dc-b7cb-0000779fd2ac.html?_i_referralObject=9810652&fromSearch=n
The Second video is of Andy Rothman who is with CLSA.  Rothman has [...]

George Baxter Bank Lending, Consumption, Stimulis, trade, video interview Andy Rothman, CLSA, Consumption, Michael Pettis, Stimulis, trade, video

Without constant stimulis Chinese excess capacity will likley continue to weigh on prices.
 
http://blogs.wsj.com/chinajournal/2009/09/25/idle-factories-still-restraining-china%e2%80%99s-investment-inflation/?mod=rss_WSJBlog?mod=chinablog

George Baxter Capacity, Commodities, Consumption, Stimulis Capacity, Commodities, Stimulis

This article is illustrative of what will prove to be a very long process of China reforming its economy to be more self sufficient by selling Chinese manufactured goods to Chinese consumers.  They have a long way to go and I doubt they will have sufficient consumption to absorb their excess capacity for years to [...]

George Baxter Consumption Consumption, trade

To summarize the Chinese official data released on Friday Sept. 11:
 The Good

Manufacturing output: up by 12.3% year on year, better than last month’s 10.8% and higher than consensus. 
Steel output: up 29%
Auto production: up 90%.
Urban fixed-asset investment: up 33.0% for the first eight months of the year, which slightly exceeded already-high estimates of 32.5%.
Retail sales: up [...]

George Baxter Bank Lending, Consumption, Stimulis, stats auto, Consumption, copper, exports, imports, iron ore, oil, retail sales, steel, Stimulis

Roach, is one of the only Wall Street strategists that in not a perma-bull.  He is one of the best authorities with respect to Asian markets and economics.  

 
http://www.mckinseyquarterly.com/Unlocking_the_power_of_Chinese_consumers_An_interview_with_Stephen_Roach_2428

George Baxter Consumption, video interview stephen roach

This is quite good.   Many market bulls are forwarding the idea that growth in Chinese consumption will replace a weakening American consumer.

http://www.mckinseyquarterly.com/Chinas_consumption_challenge_2427

George Baxter Consumption, video interview