Real China Economy

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601109&sid=a9pqrCs2M.G0

George Baxter Bank Lending, Stimulis

George Baxter Consumption, Stimulis, trade, video interview Consumption, exports, stephen roach, trade

September trade data may be somewhat misleading because of two or three extra working days last month, plus the very big holiday at the beginning of October which might have pushed activity into September. 

Exports were down 15.2% year-on-year, better than the expected 20-21%. 
Imports were down 3.5%, much better than the expected 15%. 
Month-over-month figures showed a [...]

George Baxter Bank Lending, Capacity, Commodities, Stimulis, trade Capacity, exports, imports, steel, stim, Stimulis, trade

I think these videos are both very good and from very credible sources.  The first is Michael Pettis who is based in Peking university and is one of the most watched Chinese analysts.  Pettis shares my view with respect to China and its imbalances.
http://www.ft.com/cms/893ac9c8-757e-11dc-b7cb-0000779fd2ac.html?_i_referralObject=9810652&fromSearch=n
The Second video is of Andy Rothman who is with CLSA.  Rothman has [...]

George Baxter Bank Lending, Consumption, Stimulis, trade, video interview Andy Rothman, CLSA, Consumption, Michael Pettis, Stimulis, trade, video

Without constant stimulis Chinese excess capacity will likley continue to weigh on prices.
 
http://blogs.wsj.com/chinajournal/2009/09/25/idle-factories-still-restraining-china%e2%80%99s-investment-inflation/?mod=rss_WSJBlog?mod=chinablog

George Baxter Capacity, Commodities, Consumption, Stimulis Capacity, Commodities, Stimulis

This article is interesting.  It highlights that the Chinese party believes that the speed of the recovery is slowing.   I think that we can expect no major shift in policy over the next two weeks or so as the Chinese government’s 60th anniversary is celebrated.  After that is over in October we may see some policy [...]

George Baxter Stimulis Stimulis

To summarize the Chinese official data released on Friday Sept. 11:
 The Good

Manufacturing output: up by 12.3% year on year, better than last month’s 10.8% and higher than consensus. 
Steel output: up 29%
Auto production: up 90%.
Urban fixed-asset investment: up 33.0% for the first eight months of the year, which slightly exceeded already-high estimates of 32.5%.
Retail sales: up [...]

George Baxter Bank Lending, Consumption, Stimulis, stats auto, Consumption, copper, exports, imports, iron ore, oil, retail sales, steel, Stimulis

This is clear evidence that the Chinese were stock piling oil, copper and iron ore.   I believe this was done in large part to generate the perception of economic activity.  Otherwise, this information is wildly inconsistent with the most recent Chinese reports of manufacturing activity and retail sales.
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/china-imports-of-crude-iron-ore-fall-from-record-2009-09-11

George Baxter Stimulis imports, oil, Stimulis

This article is  a few weeks old but I think it illustrates where a good bit of the Chinese lending is ending up.    It appears that many of the loans are being made to Chinese state owned corporations and instead of creating additional capacity managers are plugging funds into the housing market and the stock [...]

George Baxter Bank Lending, Stimulis, Stock Market