Real China Economy

George Baxter Consumption, Stimulis, trade, video interview Consumption, exports, stephen roach, trade

September trade data may be somewhat misleading because of two or three extra working days last month, plus the very big holiday at the beginning of October which might have pushed activity into September. 

Exports were down 15.2% year-on-year, better than the expected 20-21%. 
Imports were down 3.5%, much better than the expected 15%. 
Month-over-month figures showed a [...]

George Baxter Bank Lending, Capacity, Commodities, Stimulis, trade Capacity, exports, imports, steel, stim, Stimulis, trade

Here, Hendry discusses the comments made by Soros regarding the Yuan.
http://www.cnbc.com/id/15840232?video=1297057096&play=1

George Baxter trade, video interview exports, Hugh Hendry, trade, Yuan

Good commentary regarding the trade issue.
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/us-china-spat-hits-stocks-but-trade-war-unlikely-2009-09-15

George Baxter trade exports, imports, tariffs, trade

It seems that there was an agreement at the G20 not to use restrictive trade measures during the crisis and the US is now reaching beyond that agreement.
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/wto-chief-concerned-about-china-tire-tariffs-2009-09-16

George Baxter trade exports, imports, tariffs, trade

This article ties well with the one I posted with respect to US steel tariffs.  It seems that that Chinese stimulus has resulted in massive steel production which is being dumped around the world.  They have invested in excess capacity and goods for export.   This excess steel production is crowding out local producers who are [...]

George Baxter Capacity, Commodities Capacity, Commodities, exports, imports, steel, tariffs

To summarize the Chinese official data released on Friday Sept. 11:
 The Good

Manufacturing output: up by 12.3% year on year, better than last month’s 10.8% and higher than consensus. 
Steel output: up 29%
Auto production: up 90%.
Urban fixed-asset investment: up 33.0% for the first eight months of the year, which slightly exceeded already-high estimates of 32.5%.
Retail sales: up [...]

George Baxter Bank Lending, Consumption, Stimulis, stats auto, Consumption, copper, exports, imports, iron ore, oil, retail sales, steel, Stimulis

I find it interesting that this story gets very little play in the media and is buried on bloomberg and non-existent on CNBC but the story about positive reported improvements in Chinese manufacturing and Retail sales is everywere.   The picture that is painted is that either (1) Chinese statistics regarding their recovery are heavily doctored [...]

George Baxter Uncategorized exports

This is interesting.   This is the first protectionist move that the Obama administration has made with respect to China.  I wonder if it is being done as a one off to appease the Steal Workers Union or as a broader policy.  We will need to watch what if anything the Chinese do in response.   The biggest [...]

George Baxter Uncategorized exports, imports, tariffs