Real China Economy

September trade data may be somewhat misleading because of two or three extra working days last month, plus the very big holiday at the beginning of October which might have pushed activity into September. 

Exports were down 15.2% year-on-year, better than the expected 20-21%. 
Imports were down 3.5%, much better than the expected 15%. 
Month-over-month figures showed a [...]

George Baxter Bank Lending, Capacity, Commodities, Stimulis, trade Capacity, exports, imports, steel, stim, Stimulis, trade

Good commentary regarding the trade issue.
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/us-china-spat-hits-stocks-but-trade-war-unlikely-2009-09-15

George Baxter trade exports, imports, tariffs, trade

It seems that there was an agreement at the G20 not to use restrictive trade measures during the crisis and the US is now reaching beyond that agreement.
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/wto-chief-concerned-about-china-tire-tariffs-2009-09-16

George Baxter trade exports, imports, tariffs, trade

This article ties well with the one I posted with respect to US steel tariffs.  It seems that that Chinese stimulus has resulted in massive steel production which is being dumped around the world.  They have invested in excess capacity and goods for export.   This excess steel production is crowding out local producers who are [...]

George Baxter Capacity, Commodities Capacity, Commodities, exports, imports, steel, tariffs

To summarize the Chinese official data released on Friday Sept. 11:
 The Good

Manufacturing output: up by 12.3% year on year, better than last month’s 10.8% and higher than consensus. 
Steel output: up 29%
Auto production: up 90%.
Urban fixed-asset investment: up 33.0% for the first eight months of the year, which slightly exceeded already-high estimates of 32.5%.
Retail sales: up [...]

George Baxter Bank Lending, Consumption, Stimulis, stats auto, Consumption, copper, exports, imports, iron ore, oil, retail sales, steel, Stimulis

This is interesting.   This is the first protectionist move that the Obama administration has made with respect to China.  I wonder if it is being done as a one off to appease the Steal Workers Union or as a broader policy.  We will need to watch what if anything the Chinese do in response.   The biggest [...]

George Baxter Uncategorized exports, imports, tariffs

This is clear evidence that the Chinese were stock piling oil, copper and iron ore.   I believe this was done in large part to generate the perception of economic activity.  Otherwise, this information is wildly inconsistent with the most recent Chinese reports of manufacturing activity and retail sales.
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/china-imports-of-crude-iron-ore-fall-from-record-2009-09-11

George Baxter Stimulis imports, oil, Stimulis