Real China Economy

George Baxter Consumption, Stimulis, trade, video interview Consumption, exports, stephen roach, trade

September trade data may be somewhat misleading because of two or three extra working days last month, plus the very big holiday at the beginning of October which might have pushed activity into September. 

Exports were down 15.2% year-on-year, better than the expected 20-21%. 
Imports were down 3.5%, much better than the expected 15%. 
Month-over-month figures showed a [...]

George Baxter Bank Lending, Capacity, Commodities, Stimulis, trade Capacity, exports, imports, steel, stim, Stimulis, trade

Here, Hendry discusses the comments made by Soros regarding the Yuan.
http://www.cnbc.com/id/15840232?video=1297057096&play=1

George Baxter trade, video interview exports, Hugh Hendry, trade, Yuan

I think these videos are both very good and from very credible sources.  The first is Michael Pettis who is based in Peking university and is one of the most watched Chinese analysts.  Pettis shares my view with respect to China and its imbalances.
http://www.ft.com/cms/893ac9c8-757e-11dc-b7cb-0000779fd2ac.html?_i_referralObject=9810652&fromSearch=n
The Second video is of Andy Rothman who is with CLSA.  Rothman has [...]

George Baxter Bank Lending, Consumption, Stimulis, trade, video interview Andy Rothman, CLSA, Consumption, Michael Pettis, Stimulis, trade, video

This article is illustrative of what will prove to be a very long process of China reforming its economy to be more self sufficient by selling Chinese manufactured goods to Chinese consumers.  They have a long way to go and I doubt they will have sufficient consumption to absorb their excess capacity for years to [...]

George Baxter Consumption Consumption, trade

Good commentary regarding the trade issue.
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/us-china-spat-hits-stocks-but-trade-war-unlikely-2009-09-15

George Baxter trade exports, imports, tariffs, trade

It seems that there was an agreement at the G20 not to use restrictive trade measures during the crisis and the US is now reaching beyond that agreement.
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/wto-chief-concerned-about-china-tire-tariffs-2009-09-16

George Baxter trade exports, imports, tariffs, trade